Pakistani Taliban weakening, splintering into factions
ISLAMABAD - Battered by Pakistani military operations and United States drone strikes, the once-formidable Pakistani Taliban has splintered into more than 100 smaller factions, weakened and running short of cash, according to security officials, analysts and tribesmen from the insurgent heartland.
The group, allied with Al Qaeda, has been behind much of the violence tearing apart Pakistan over the last four-and-a-half years. Based in the north-west close to the Afghan border, it is known as the Tehrik-e-Taliban, or TTP.
"Today, the command structure of the TTP is splintered, weak and divided and they are running out of money,'' said Mr Mansur Mahsud, a senior researcher at the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Area) Research Centre.
"In the bigger picture, this helps the army and the government because the Taliban are now divided.''
The first signs of cracks within the Pakistani Taliban appeared after its leader, Baitullah Mehsud, was killed in a drone strike in August 2009, Mr Mahsud said. Since then, the group has steadily deteriorated.
Set up in 2007, the Pakistani Taliban is an umbrella organisation created to represent roughly 40 insurgent groups in the tribal belt, plus Al Qaeda-linked groups headquartered in Pakistan's eastern Punjab province.
"The disintegration ... has accelerated with the Pakistan military operation in South Waziristan and the drone attacks by the United States in North Waziristan,'' Mr Mahsud said, referring to the two tribal agencies that are the heartland of the Pakistani Taliban.
Another factor is the divide-and-conquer strategy Pakistan's military has long employed in its dealings with militants. Commanders have broken away from the TTP and set up their own factions. Battles have broken out among the breakaway factions. These growing signs of fissures indicate the military's strategy could be paying off.
That would explain the mixed signals this month coming out of the tribal belt, where some militants are mulling the idea of peace talks with the government, others are offering to stop fighting and still others are disavowing both peace and a ceasefire.
It might also explain a steady decline in suicide attacks in Pakistan, according to the privately run Pak Institute for Peace Studies.
Analysts predict that over time, the internecine feuding in the Pakistani Taliban will take a toll on militants fighting in Afghanistan, making it increasingly difficult for them to find recruits and restricting territory available to them.
Pakistan's military has rebuffed appeals from Washington to take on all of the insurgent groups in the tribal region, saying it has neither the men nor the weapons to do so.
Instead, Islamabad has pushed its divide-and-conquer approach, which is gaining some traction in the US, according to two Western officials in the region, who requested to remain anonymous.
Cooperation between the US and Pakistan, however, suffered a serious setback a week ago when NATO aircraft killed 24 Pakistani soldiers at two border posts.
There is no independent figure on how many Taliban fighters operate in the tribal regions, but it is estimated to be in the thousands. There are upward of 130 groups in the area, Mr Mahsud said, some of them small, violent offshoots of larger groups. AP
The group, allied with Al Qaeda, has been behind much of the violence tearing apart Pakistan over the last four-and-a-half years. Based in the north-west close to the Afghan border, it is known as the Tehrik-e-Taliban, or TTP.
"Today, the command structure of the TTP is splintered, weak and divided and they are running out of money,'' said Mr Mansur Mahsud, a senior researcher at the FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Area) Research Centre.
"In the bigger picture, this helps the army and the government because the Taliban are now divided.''
The first signs of cracks within the Pakistani Taliban appeared after its leader, Baitullah Mehsud, was killed in a drone strike in August 2009, Mr Mahsud said. Since then, the group has steadily deteriorated.
Set up in 2007, the Pakistani Taliban is an umbrella organisation created to represent roughly 40 insurgent groups in the tribal belt, plus Al Qaeda-linked groups headquartered in Pakistan's eastern Punjab province.
"The disintegration ... has accelerated with the Pakistan military operation in South Waziristan and the drone attacks by the United States in North Waziristan,'' Mr Mahsud said, referring to the two tribal agencies that are the heartland of the Pakistani Taliban.
Another factor is the divide-and-conquer strategy Pakistan's military has long employed in its dealings with militants. Commanders have broken away from the TTP and set up their own factions. Battles have broken out among the breakaway factions. These growing signs of fissures indicate the military's strategy could be paying off.
That would explain the mixed signals this month coming out of the tribal belt, where some militants are mulling the idea of peace talks with the government, others are offering to stop fighting and still others are disavowing both peace and a ceasefire.
It might also explain a steady decline in suicide attacks in Pakistan, according to the privately run Pak Institute for Peace Studies.
Analysts predict that over time, the internecine feuding in the Pakistani Taliban will take a toll on militants fighting in Afghanistan, making it increasingly difficult for them to find recruits and restricting territory available to them.
Pakistan's military has rebuffed appeals from Washington to take on all of the insurgent groups in the tribal region, saying it has neither the men nor the weapons to do so.
Instead, Islamabad has pushed its divide-and-conquer approach, which is gaining some traction in the US, according to two Western officials in the region, who requested to remain anonymous.
Cooperation between the US and Pakistan, however, suffered a serious setback a week ago when NATO aircraft killed 24 Pakistani soldiers at two border posts.
There is no independent figure on how many Taliban fighters operate in the tribal regions, but it is estimated to be in the thousands. There are upward of 130 groups in the area, Mr Mahsud said, some of them small, violent offshoots of larger groups. AP
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